3 Steps to create an estimate if we can't test all possible Corona Virus Carrier in a Country.

Using some basic principle of Management Accounting.

1. Start with a number that is considered an accurate number and not a best estimate.

Ex. Number of death with a  proper  Corona Virus Test

2.  Use a ratio,factor,percentage  that is based on the data of  no. 1.

Ex. Death rate is 1% 3% 4%.   

3.  Match no. 1 with number 2

Ex.  Deaths 11 /4%=   275 estimate of Corona Virus carrier.

Or

Ex.  Deaths 11 /1%=   1,100 estimate of Corona Virus carrier.

As of March 15, 2020 We have 140 confirmed cases  11 deaths and based on our estimate above it can be at least 275 .

What can we do with the  confirmed 140 Philippine cases number  as of 3/15/2020 and the estimate of 275 or 1,100?

The objective is having a number to start using an estimate and having an estimate we can know what is the probable gap of confirmed cases and cases we still need to test.  We maybe too focused on the confirmed cases and maybe too relax not to remember there are still cases that we did not test.  We must also not forget that people are also recovering and avoid contact with the highest risk individuals.

            1.  Listen and do what the crisis and medical experts recommend us on what we can plan and do.

      2. If we wait for the actual number then we will not be emotionally and mentally prepared to handle it.  Having the plan for the worst case estimates and trends then we will be more aware to anticipate if we really going in that direction. Panic will not help anyone, be aware and adjust immediately if there are big changes in the situation.