Using some basic principle of
Management Accounting.
1. Start with a number that is
considered an accurate number and not a best estimate.
Ex. Number of death with a
proper Corona Virus Test
2. Use a
ratio,factor,percentage that is based on the data of no. 1.
Ex. Death rate is 1% 3% 4%.
3. Match no. 1 with number 2
Ex. Deaths 11 /4%= 275 estimate of Corona Virus carrier.
Or
Ex. Deaths 11 /1%= 1,100 estimate of Corona Virus carrier.
As of March 15, 2020 We have 140
confirmed cases 11 deaths and based on
our estimate above it can be at least 275 .
What can we do with the confirmed 140 Philippine cases number as of 3/15/2020 and the estimate of 275 or
1,100?
The objective is having a number to start using an estimate
and having an estimate we can know what is the probable gap of confirmed cases
and cases we still need to test. We
maybe too focused on the confirmed cases and maybe too relax not to remember there
are still cases that we did not test. We
must also not forget that people are also recovering and avoid contact with the
highest risk individuals.
1. Listen
and do what the crisis and medical experts recommend us on what we can plan and
do.
2. If we
wait for the actual number then we will not be emotionally and mentally prepared
to handle it. Having the plan for the
worst case estimates and trends then we will be more aware to anticipate if we
really going in that direction. Panic will not help anyone, be aware and adjust
immediately if there are big changes in the situation.
